Happy New Year to you and your family!
Many of you are familiar with Barry Habib of the Mortgage Market Guide – he provides us daily updates on the stock and bond market as well as events happening around the whole that impact mortgage rates. It helps us tremendously in our efforts to guide our clients in interest rate lock/float decisions. The following is a summary of his forecast for 2012. If any of you would like more information we’re happy to talk through this in greater detail. His forecast is 8 pages long…we’ll try to be a bit more brief. J
Events that will likely affect interest rates in 2012
€ The European Debt situation – This is an enormously important issue for the world in general but it’s specifically interesting for us in the real estate/mortgage industry as it could have a significant impact on mortgage interest rates. As The European nations continue to struggle, our mortgage interest rates benefit. As Barry put it in the forecast, “we’re still the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry”. As a result, investors looking for a safe place to put their money are flocking to our bonds. This helps mortgage rates.
€ Unemployment Rate - He forecasts that unemployment will continue “north of 8% throughout 2012” with more gains in the private sector offsetting losses in government jobs. With little change in this rate, it won’t be a driver of interest rates for 2012.
€ Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3): The Fed is considering another round of QE under the guise of helping to boost the housing market. When QE2 was announced (in 2010), rates went down on the rumor but once the program started actually went up. The current rumor is that there is a 50/50 chance of this happening in the spring - So, rates should currently be benefiting by this rumor for another several months.
€ The Housing Market forecast:
- o Delinquency rates have declined and they will continue to do so.
- o Home prices will likely decline modestly (1 to 2%) in the first ½ of 2012 and then recover in the 2nd 1/2
- o Rental/Investment properties will make up a larger portion of the market in 2012
Interest Rate Forecast
€ He sees interest rates moving ‘a leg’ lower in the first part of 2012 as QE3 rumors swirl
€ These lower rates, as we talked about above, would likely quickly reverse after QE3 actually gets implemented.
€ If the Fed doesn’t do QE3, rates will continue to be attractive through the first part of the year, moving a bit higher towards the end of 2012 as the economy picks up.
€ Rates may dip down near 3.5% and rise somewhere in the mid-to-high 4’s in 2012 but not likely higher than that unless inflation starts to spike higher.
We find this whole topic fascinating, but understand that not everyone does…so we’ll leave it there. If you’d like have a deeper understanding of how any of the issues above may affect the real estate/mortgage market give us a call.
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